Zynn's Exodus

So now that I know I’m not going to need to spend any orbs on the special heroes banner to pull for some well drawn men in formal wear, I’ve decided to focus my insomnia on more important things like figuring out who will be on the legendary heroes banner. 

Wild speculation and rambling below the cut. Apologies to anyone on mobile for the length.

As a quick warning to anyone who hopped over here from the youtube video. My blog is not always sfw, although for the most part the FE tag is. Please take that into consideration when you decide whether or not to explore the rest of this blog.

So based on the past legendary heroes summoning banners, the most basic rules seem to be as follows:

1. There will be one legendary hero of every color for which a legendary hero exists (which is currently all 4 colors). 
2. There will be 3 focus heroes of every color.
3. All focus heroes will be 5 star exclusive.

Other observations show a few more patterns that are common, but probably not as set in stone as the three above.
1. There have been 4 special heroes on every legendary banner, each time spanning 3 colors with one of the colors having 2 special heroes (usually this color is green because the special heroes pool is saturated with green heroes, and I do not see this changing for this banner).
2. The two special heroes of the same color have never been from the same original banner.
3. There has been a brave hero on every banner except the last one (Lyn), and there were two on the banner before it (F!Grima). 
4. They seem do be doing a fill-in-the-circle with the type of legendary hero, so it is almost certain that this hero will be either red or colorless with either a fire or water affinity. On the other hand, IS could also just pull one out of their ass and give us a third wind legendary or something, but I feel like this is a pretty safe bet.
5. For legendary heroes that exist, they appear on the banner in rotation according to their weapon type (for example, Fjorm appears on one banner, then Ephraim appears on the next, then Fjorm, then Ephraim, and so on).
6. Spaces not filled by legendary heroes or seasonal heroes are generally filled by recently (as in 2-3 months ago) released 5 star exclusive units.

So on to the predictions!

Red Units:
1. New Legendary Hero!
2. Knight Exalt Chrom
3. Brave Roy

Likely Alternates:
Winter Tharja
New Year Camilla
Leif
Sword!Reinhardt 

Explanation: 
I have no speculation on who the legendary hero is going to be, but I have a feeling they’re going to be red. This is because IS apparently wants to drown us in red units. More seriously, it’s also because of the supposed introduction of colored bows, so I think it’s unlikely that we’d get a colorless bow unit. I also have trouble seeing a dagger or staff unit as legendary, but it’s possible. If the new legendary unit is colorless, Vanguard Ike will be on this banner instead. 

Winter Tharja and New Year Camilla are the only special red units that have not yet appeared on a legendary banner. Since Tharja has an alt on the bridal banner, I think it’s unlikely that they’ll run her other alt at the same time on this banner. I don’t think they’ll run Camilla because of color distribution issues, and issues with colorless heroes (which I’ll talk about in that section). 

Knight Exalt Chrom is almost definitely going to be on this banner. He has not been featured since his introduction and has the perfect time lapse to appear now. Leif and sword!Reinhardt are also possibilities, but their banner was relatively recent so I find it less likely that either of them will be featured again so soon. If one of them does appear, I would expect them to take the place of Brave Roy, as he is only on here due to the previous presence brave units have had on these banners.

Blue Units:
1. Fjorm
2. Winter Robin
3. Fallen Hardin

Likely Alternates:
Valentine Lyn
Spring Catria
Female Morgan

Explanation:
Since Ephraim was on the last legendary banner, now it’s Fjorm’s turn to be back.

For special heroes, the winter banner is the oldest banner that has not had any units appear again on legendary banners. Because of this, I feel like that banner will have two heroes featured on this legendary banner. Since I don’t think Tharja will appear and the other two units are both green (Chrom and Lissa), Robin will have to appear if this banner follows the previous patterns. Because they’re likely to do a rerun of last year’s bridal banner in the very near future, I doubt that valentine Lyn will make a reappearance now. I also feel like it’s too soon for the Hares at the Fair banner units to reappear, but I could be wrong about that. 

Female Morgan and Hardin are the two newest 5 star exclusive blue units who will have the opportunity to be on this banner (Ishtar – like Ares and Lene – is still too new and Shigure was demoted). Hardin is slightly older than Morgan, so I feel like he has a higher chance of being on this banner. 

Green Units:
1. Gunnthra
2. Winter Lissa
3. Valentine Lilina

Likely Alternates:
Winter Chrom
Valentine Hector
New Year Azura

Explanation:
Since we just got Legendary Lyn as a green unit, it’s Gunnthra’s turn to be back on the banner.

For special units I feel like green will have two due to the large presence of green units in the special pool (currently 7 of the 15 special units who have yet to appear on legendary banners are green, excluding the bridal banner being released on Monday). That said, I do not think both of them will be from the same banner, hence why I do not have both Lissa and Chrom listed on there. It’s a tossup as to which one will actually be on the banner, so I picked Lissa just because there is already a Chrom on the banner with the Knight Exalt (although note that there has been a legendary banner with two Ike’s on it before, so that doesn’t necessarily mean anything). Same goes for Lilina and Hector, either one could be on the banner. I did not put Azura on the banner since she is a flying singer – a very unique type of unit – and we already have another banner with a flying singer going on at the same time (thanks, bridal Ninian). Also the New Year banner only has 3 units instead of 4, which will likely throw a wrench in exactly how it gets represented on the legendary banners. Alfonse and Sharena are also possibilities from the spring banner, but again I think it’s too soon for them to appear. 

There are no general green pool units on this list because I think it’s almost certain that there will be two special heroes in the green pool. If there are non-special units, Rhajat is the most likely followed by Brave Ike and Myrrh. 

Colorless units:
1. Female Grima Robin
2. New Year Takumi
3. Innes

Likely Alternates:
Mist
Blue Sky Hinoka
Elise
Valentine Roy

Explanation:
Female Grima Robin is currently the only colorless legendary, and I doubt the new legendary will also be colorless. But hey, could happen.

The colorless special heroes we have to choose from are New Year Takumi, Valentine Roy, and Spring Kagero. I am almost totally certain that a special hero will be on the colorless choices because the regular 5 star colorless pool is so small they’re already putting heroes who have been on a legendary banner on a second legendary banner because they have no one else to use. Having a special hero will alleviate this problem somewhat, so I’m pretty confident there will be one (but only one, since they don’t want to go through them too fast). Again, I think it’s too soon for Kagero, so it’s mostly between Roy and Takumi. Since Takumi is from an older special summons and does not have any current competition with similar units in the bridal pool, I think he’s slightly more likely to appear than Roy. 

So. Let’s talk about the colorless summoning pool, because this is hilarious. Current non-special 5 star exclusive colorless units include: Mist, Genny, Elise, Faye, Innes, Brave Lyn, Takumi, Jaffar, and Blue Sky Hinoka. That’s 9 units. 9 total units. Of those, only Mist and Hinoka haven’t been on a legendary summoning banner. Mist presumably because she’s a terrible unit and Hinoka because she’s too new (her new heroes banner was literally running at the same time as the Legendary Lyn banner). Every other hero has appeared on these banners. Brave Lyn and Genny have appeared twice, both on the initial Fjorm banner and then again on the Grima and Lyn banners respectively. If they continue the oh-no-we-ran-out-of-heroes-better-repeat trend they did with Brave Lyn and Genny, Innes and Elise are the two heroes who were released on Gunnthra’s banner and would pop up next in the rotation. The other options are to give Hinoka the record for shortest reappearance time since the units released at launch with 20 days between her new heroes banner and her second summoning banner (unlikely, but possible), or make everyone scrunch their noses and avoid the colorless stones by putting Mist on the banner (IS likes money, so less likely). Smart money is on Innes or Elise, more likely Innes since our last banner featured a healer and IS seems to make a lackadaisical attempt to rotate the weapon of the colorless unit between legendary banners.

(As an ending aside, I think that the stance passives banner will feature Shiro, Zelgius, and Female Kana. I’m super excited because this will be my first chance at summoning the little cheese. :D)